10/30 Lesson 5.2.5 Probability Trees

1.  Warm-up:  Using the Probability Tree from the Crazy Creations Ice Cream store, answer the following questions:

a)  What is P(chocolate and sprinkles)?

b)  What is P(vanilla and grape)?

c)  What is P(hazelnuts, chocolate, and plum)?

d)  What is P(toffee bits and sprinkles)?


2.  Announcements:

• We will finish Unit 3 on Tuesday
• Team Test on Wednesday

3.  Finish Lesson 5.2.5 Probability Trees

• Notes/discussion:  Mutually exclusive events
• Do Problems 68 and 69 in teams

4.  Probability Challenge problem (extra credit, due Monday)

Design two number cubes that meet the following requirements:

• P(sum is 9) = 1/6
• P(sum is odd) = 2/3
• P(sum is divisible by 5) = 1/18

Hints/Tips:

1. The number cubes don't need to be exactly the same
2. The number cubes don't need to go up in ascending order
3. A number can be repeated on a number cube
4. All faces of the number cube must contain positive integers

10/29 Lesson 5.2.5 Probability Trees

1.  Warm-up:  Design a Ten O's board with your team

2.  Lesson 5.2.5 Probability Trees

• Objective:  I will develop visual models for counting outcomes of multiple events
• Do Problem 65 in teams
• Finished early?  Change the problem so that instead of finding the sum, you find the product of the 2 spins.  Which result is most likely now?
• Problem 66 a) individually
• Complete Problems 66, 67 using Probability Tree resource page
• Use either a Probability Tree or Table to solve Problems 68 and 69

Homework:  Lesson 5.2.5 R/P

10/28 Lesson 5.2.4 Probability Tables

1.  Warm-up:

Ask yourself this question: "Does the previous result affect what will happen next?"


2.  Lesson 5.2.4 Probability Tables

• Objective:  I will develop a method for counting and organizing all possible outcomes
• Ten O's game
• Analysis of Ten O's game using a probability table (Problems 55 through 57)
• Place a check-mark on the board when your team has completed a problem
• Create your own probability table to solve Problems 58 and 59

Homework:  Lesson 5.2.4 R/P

10/27 Lesson 5.2.2 and 5.2.3

1.  Warm-up:  Read problem 36 below and answer the questions that follow.

Janelle’s aunt and uncle have three children, two of whom are girls.  Assuming that girl children and boy children are equally likely, Janelle thought that the chance of having two or more girls out of 3 children must be 50%.  Janelle’s brother thought the chance of having so many girls had to be less than 50%.  

a)  Make a conjecture.  What do you think the probability of having two or three girls in a family of three is?

b)  Design a computer simulation that would help you solve this problem.

2.  Finish Lesson 5.2.2 (page 260)

• Complete Problems 36 and 37 in teams
• 20 minute timer--if you don't finish, it's homework

3.  Start Lesson 5.2.3 Compound Independent Events (page 263)

• Objectives
• I will determine whether an event is dependent or independent
• I will calculate the probability of compound independent events
• Problem 43 in teams. Stoplight.  Check with Mr. Robinett before moving on
• Problem 44 and 45 in teams.  Stoplight. Check with Mr. Robinett before moving on

Closure:  Summarize your understanding of independent and dependent events.  How can you determine if two events are independent of one another?

Homework:  Lesson 5.2.3 R/P (skip 51, 53) and Lesson 5.2.2 Problems 36 and 37

10/26 Lesson 5.2.2 Probability using Computer Simulations

1.  Warm-up:

For each of the following games, a random number generator is used.  The random numbers are integers ranging from 1 to 20.  Assume that Player Y wins if Player X does not.

Game 1:  Player X wins if the number is prime
Game 2:  Player X wins if the number is even
Game 3:  Player X wins if the number is NOT divisible by 3

For each game:

a) Find the Probability that X wins        b) Find the probability that Y wins     

c) Is it a fair game?


2.  Lesson 5.2.2 Probability Using Computer Simulations

• Objective:  I will calculate the probability of complex situations using computer simulations
• Mr. Robinett leads Problem 35.  When your team is finished, fill out this form to enter your team's data.  Only 1 form per team!
• With your new knowledge of computer simulations, design an experiment to help you solve Problems 36 and 37

Homework: Lesson 5.2.2 R/P